India rushes foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai to Maldives to push for political deal

Amid concerns that New Delhi may have dropped the ball on the Maldives, India dispatched foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai to Male on Wednesday to try to stabilizethe situation in the country. His brief is to attempt to work out a political solution to the crisis that refuses to die down. 

Mathai's visit comes ahead of a huge rally by Nasheed slated for February 17 in Male, that sources said, is aimed at an international audience. The rally will coincide with a visit to the island nation by the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG), which is coming in to assess the change of power. 

Mathai's brief is to talk to Nasheed before the rally, to explain to him the Indian approach and work out a way forward that restores stability in the Maldives. Mathai will also meet the new president Waheed, to caution him that India would not appreciate it if there was any crackdown on the Nasheed rally, or any attempt to arrest Nasheed. 

Mathai's visit comes after Ganapathi, secretary (west) in the MEA, went there last week to forge a compromise between the government of Waheed Hassan and Nasheed, who has gone back to being an activist and been pushing for snap polls. The Indian effort made no headway in defusing the internal tensions, which has necessitated the Indian government stepping up its involvement in the country. 

On a wider level, India's high level presence is expected to signal that India will take whatever steps are necessary to ensure peace and stability in the Maldives. After the Indian government recognized the Waheed government, most other countries have taken a similar line. All except the UK that continues to back Nasheed. As president, Nasheed had several British advisers, including on climate change. 

The Indian initiative became important after former president Nasheed made statements that seemed to suggest that the political crisis in the Maldives had a larger dimension, including a possible geopolitical competition with China. The continuing turmoil in the Maldives has made it a ground for political players from many other countries to arrive there for a foothold. 

Mathai, who travelled in a special flight to Male, is expected to hold discussions with all the political leaders, including Nasheed and Waheed. India lost leverage in the Maldives when it rushed to legitimize the new government of Waheed within 24 hours. Sources said, India should have expected that Nasheed, who has been an ardent activist, was unlikely to go quietly and New Delhi could have worked with both sides to achieve a political outcome. 

Since the moment Nasheed declared that he had been overthrown in a coup - about 24 hours late - the ground situation took a dramatically different turn. Nasheed has made himself out to be the injured party; including hinting that there could be a Chinese angle to the current crisis. In an interview, he said the Malvidian National Defence Forces (MND) was asking him to sign a defence deal with China which he apparently resisted. This claim, which he believes puts him back in the Indian "camp", came after he expressed disappointment with New Delhi's decision to back the Waheed government. 

Government sources here said that the situation in the Maldives had been building up for many months, which led to the "coup" on February 7. Indian officials said privately that in the past year, the government had often advised Nasheed to take a different, more consensual approach with his political opponents who had been increasing. 

On the China "threat", sources said former president Gayoom had refused to sign a defence agreement with India or any other country. To that extent, Nasheed had gone very far to sign a far-reaching security agreement with India. The Maldivian defence forces are allowed total access to the Indian defence forces, they said, and would not want to jeopardize that, by agreeing to a Chinese defence offer. 

Nasheed has indicated that India might lose leverage in the Maldives to China. Given that the Indian strategic establishment is jittery about Chinese increasing its sphere of influence in countries around India, and public opinion back home could be critical of the government, it was felt necessary to dispatch Mathai to work out a solution there. 

The Waheed government and India agree on two important things. First that the February 7 events were not a coup and that the situation in the Maldives had to stabilize before elections are called. Nasheed, on the other hand, wants elections right now. India will also have to manage a new reality: Nasheed, who as a president said he was a friend of India, could now be on the other side. 

Diplomatic sources, however, said India continued to be good friends with both Nasheed and the new regime. "Our policy is not party-centric or people-centric. We continue to remain friends with both. We have been engaging with both sides," a source said.