The number of travel industry failures has dropped to 12 in the last
quarter, but PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP has warned the worse could be to
come.
It said the drop from 27 failures in the first quarter, helped by the
early warm weather and weak pound, will offer hope heading into August,
but shock-waves might be felt in the autumn.
PwC said the spring quarter traditionally claims fewer victims, as
travel businesses typically receive more money from customers during
April to June than at other times of the year.
Director Ian Oakley-Smith said: "This, coupled with some apparent
forbearance from regulators and lenders, has helped ensure failures
during the period are no worse than a year ago.
“However, some travel businesses that continue to rely on support from
shareholders, lenders and others may find this more difficult to sustain
through the autumn. As a result we expect to see a further wave of
insolvencies from September onwards."
The company said swine flu could also impact bookings for overseas
travel.
“As the world tries to minimise the spread of swine flu (for example
airlines actively preventing passengers with certain symptoms from
boarding flights) there will naturally be an impact on inbound and
outbound tourism which will also dampen the spirits of the travel
industry over the summer,” said PwC director Guy Gillon.
“However, this may increase the propensity for domestic holidays."
PwC pointed out that there have been no camp or caravan site
insolvencies since 2007 and is expected to show modest growth from 2009
– 2012.
Gillon added: “It is vital the market should not over-estimate the
structural shift to camping and caravanning. As ever it has its place in
the world but is a reaction to the recession. It is a cyclical and not
structural shift in the market.
“Appetite for such holidays is as mobile as the caravan itself and,
while it will remain in the hearts of a set group of holidaymakers, its
ability to appeal to those other than the converted is temporary as the
pound remains weak, the euro strong, unemployment high, and the sun
supposedly out." |